Progesterone level on the day of hCG administration in relation to the pregnancy rates of patients undergoing assisted reproduction techniques

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive capacity for pregnancy of the progesterone level on the day of administering human chorionic gonadotropin, in women submitted to assisted reproductive techniques. METHODS: An observational study with 914 women submitted to assisted reproductive techniques from August 2014 to June 2016. RESULTS: Total pregnancy rate was 34.58%; in that, the pregnancy rate in women <35 years, between 35 and 38, and >38 years was, respectively, 42.3%, 38.7% and 16.1% (p<0.001). For embryo transfer in the same cycle, and progesterone of 1.3ng/dL, sensitivity was 4.78%, specificity, 84.18%, accuracy, 56.72%, positive likelihood ratio of 0.3019, and negative likelihood ratio of 1.1312, with receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.46 (95%CI: 0.42-0.49). CONCLUSION: The progesterone level on the day of administering human chorionic gonadotropin of 1.3ng/dL differs from that empirically adopted at the study site (1.7ng/dL), and has a better predictive capacity for pregnancy in the patients studied. However, the low sensitivity of this examination raises questions about its real importance.