First estimates of the global and regional incidence of neonatal herpes infection

BACKGROUND: Neonatal herpes is a rare but potentially devastating condition (60% fatality without treatment). Transmission usually occurs during delivery from mothers with herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) or HSV-2 genital infection. The global burden has never been quantified. We developed a novel methodology for burden estimation and present first WHO global and regional estimates of the annual number of neonatal herpes cases during 2010–2015. METHODS: Previous estimates of HSV-1 and HSV-2 prevalence and incidence in women aged 15–49 years were applied to 2010–2015 birth rates to estimate infections during pregnancy. Published risks of neonatal HSV transmission were then applied according to whether maternal infection was incident or prevalent with HSV-1 or HSV-2 to estimate neonatal herpes cases. FINDINGS: Globally the overall rate of neonatal herpes was estimated to be ~10 cases per 100,000 births, equivalent to a best-estimate of ~14,000 cases annually (HSV-1: ~4,000; HSV-2: ~10,000). We estimated that the most neonatal herpes cases occurred in Africa, due to high maternal HSV-2 infection and high birth rates. HSV-1 contributed more cases than HSV-2 in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific. High rates of genital HSV-1 infection and moderate HSV-2 prevalence meant the Americas had the highest overall rate. However, our estimates are highly sensitive to the core assumptions, and considerable uncertainty exists for many settings given sparse underlying data. INTERPRETATION: These neonatal herpes estimates mark the first attempt to quantify the global burden of this rare but serious condition. Better primary data collection on neonatal herpes is critically needed to reduce uncertainty and refine future estimates. This is particularly important in resource-poor settings where we may have underestimated cases. Nevertheless, these first estimates suggest development of new HSV prevention measures such as vaccines could have additional benefits beyond reducing genital ulcer disease and HSV-associated HIV transmission, through prevention of neonatal herpes. FUNDING: World Health Organization