Body weight in adolescence and long-term risk of early heart failure in adulthood among men in Sweden

AIMS: To study the relation between body mass index (BMI) in young men and risk of early hospitalization with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a prospective cohort study, men from the Swedish Conscript Registry investigated 1968–2005 (n = 1 610 437; mean age, 18.6 years were followed 5–42 years (median, 23.0 years; interquartile range, 15.0–32.0), 5492 first hospitalizations for heart failure occurred (mean age at diagnosis, 46.6 (SD 8.0) years). Compared with men with a body mass index (BMI) of 18.5–20.0 kg/m(2), men with a BMI 20.0–22.5 kg/m(2) had an hazard ratio (HR) of 1.22 (95% CI, 1.10–1.35), after adjustment for age, year of conscription, comorbidities at baseline, parental education, blood pressure, IQ, muscle strength, and fitness. The risk rose incrementally with increasing BMI such that men with a BMI of 30–35 kg/m(2) had an adjusted HR of 6.47 (95% CI, 5.39–7.77) and those with a BMI of ≥35 kg/m(2) had an HR of 9.21 (95% CI, 6.57–12.92). The multiple-adjusted risk of heart failure per 1 unit increase in BMI ranged from 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02–1.11) in heart failure associated with valvular disease to 1.20 (95% CI, 1.18–1.22) for cases associated with coronary heart disease, diabetes, or hypertension. CONCLUSION: We found a steeply rising risk of early heart failure detectable already at a normal body weight, increasing nearly 10-fold in the highest weight category. Given the current obesity epidemic, heart failure in the young may increase substantially in the future and physicians need to be aware of this.