Association Between the Incidence of Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreaticoduodenectomy and the Degree of Pancreatic Fibrosis

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate the association between the incidence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and the degree of pancreatic fibrosis. METHOD: Between January 2013 and December 2016, the analysis of the clinical data of 529 cases of pancreaticoduodenectomy patients of our hospital was performed in a retrospective fashion. The univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were done using the Pearson chi-squared test and binary logistic regression analysis model; correlations were analyzed by Spearman rank correlation analysis. The value of the degree of pancreatic fibrosis to predict the incidence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: The total incidence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy was 28.5% (151/529). Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis showed that BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2), pancreatic duct size ≤ 3 mm, pancreatic CT value< 30, the soft texture of the pancreas (judged during the operation), and the percent of fibrosis of pancreatic lobule ≤ 25% are prognostic factors of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy (P < 0.05); the pancreatic CT value and the percent of fibrosis of pancreatic lobule in pancreatic fistula group were both lower than those in non-pancreatic fistula group (P < 0.05). Results indicated that there is a negative correlation between the severity of pancreatic fistula and the pancreatic CT value or the percent of fibrosis of pancreatic lobule (r = − 0.297, − 0.342, respectively). The areas under the ROC curve of the percent of fibrosis of pancreatic lobule and the pancreatic CT value were 0.756 and 0.728, respectively. CONCLUSION: The degree of pancreatic fibrosis is a prognostic factor which can influence the pancreatic texture and the incidence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy. The pancreatic CT value can be used as a quantitative index of the degree of pancreatic fibrosis to predict the incidence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy.