A Prognostic Nomogram for Postoperative Bone Remodeling in Patients with ADDWoR

This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic nomogram for predicting the probability of postoperative bone remodeling of patients with anterior disc displacement without reduction (ADDWoR). The nomogram was based on a retrospective study on patients underwent surgical approaches for ADDWoR at Shanghai Ninth People’s Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University from January, 2007 to January, 2017. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop variables suitable for probability estimation model. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were determined by ROC (AUC-index) and calibration curve. Results were validated using bootstrap resampling with all statistical tests two-sided. 1110 patients were included in the analysis. The probability of postoperative bone remodeling in ADDWoR was 0.51. Six independent prognostic factors including age of onset, nocturnal bruxism, disc morphology, BMD, Wilkes’ classification, and postoperative splint therapy were integrated to construct the nomogram. The probability estimation model showed good discrimination in both internal and external validation with AUC-index of 0.84. The calibration curves for probability of postoperative bone remodeling showed optimal agreement with actual observation. In conclusion, a nomogram was established to provide individual prediction of postoperative bone remodeling for patients with ADDWoR treated by arthroscopy surgery.