A New Reliability Analysis Model of the Chegongzhuang Heat-Supplying Tunnel Structure Considering the Coupling of Pipeline Thrust and Thermal Effect

Based on the operating Chegongzhuang heat-supplying tunnel in Beijing, the reliability of its lining structure under the action of large thrust and thermal effect is studied. According to the characteristics of a heat-supplying tunnel service, a three-dimensional numerical analysis model was established based on the mechanical tests on the in-situ specimens. The stress and strain of the tunnel structure were obtained before and after the operation. Compared with the field monitoring data, the rationality of the model was verified. After extracting the internal force of the lining structure, the improved method of subset simulation was proposed as the performance function to calculate the reliability of the main control section of the tunnel. In contrast to the traditional calculation method, the analytic relationship between the sample numbers in the subset simulation method and Monte Carlo method was given. The results indicate that the lining structure is greatly influenced by coupling in the range of six meters from the fixed brackets, especially the tunnel floor. The improved subset simulation method can greatly save computation time and improve computational efficiency under the premise of ensuring the accuracy of calculation. It is suitable for the reliability calculation of tunnel engineering, because “the lower the probability, the more efficient the calculation.”