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Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East
Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic as...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5849753/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29535418 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22795-8 |
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author | Tabari, Hossein Willems, Patrick |
author_facet | Tabari, Hossein Willems, Patrick |
author_sort | Tabari, Hossein |
collection | PubMed |
description | Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a “highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring” pattern which switches to the “increase in autumn, decrease in spring” pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the “wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” paradigm. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5849753 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-58497532018-03-21 Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East Tabari, Hossein Willems, Patrick Sci Rep Article Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a “highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring” pattern which switches to the “increase in autumn, decrease in spring” pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the “wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” paradigm. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-03-13 /pmc/articles/PMC5849753/ /pubmed/29535418 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22795-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Tabari, Hossein Willems, Patrick Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East |
title | Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East |
title_full | Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East |
title_fullStr | Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East |
title_full_unstemmed | Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East |
title_short | Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East |
title_sort | seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the middle east |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5849753/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29535418 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22795-8 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT tabarihossein seasonallyvaryingfootprintofclimatechangeonprecipitationinthemiddleeast AT willemspatrick seasonallyvaryingfootprintofclimatechangeonprecipitationinthemiddleeast |