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Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise

Observational evidence points to a warming global climate accompanied by rising sea levels which impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities. Studies suggest that internal climate processes can modulate projected future sea level rise (SLR) regionally. It is not clear whether this m...

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Autores principales: Hu, Aixue, Bates, Susan C.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5852151/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29540828
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03474-8
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author Hu, Aixue
Bates, Susan C.
author_facet Hu, Aixue
Bates, Susan C.
author_sort Hu, Aixue
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description Observational evidence points to a warming global climate accompanied by rising sea levels which impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities. Studies suggest that internal climate processes can modulate projected future sea level rise (SLR) regionally. It is not clear whether this modulation depends on the future climate pathways. Here, by analyzing two sets of ensemble simulations from a climate model, we investigate the potential reduction of SLR, as a result of steric and dynamic oceanographic affects alone, achieved by following a lower emission scenario instead of business-as-usual one over the twenty-first century and how it may be modulated regionally by internal climate variability. Results show almost no statistically significant difference in steric and dynamic SLR on both global and regional scales in the near-term between the two scenarios, but statistically significant SLR reduction for the global mean and many regions later in the century (2061–2080). However, there are regions where the reduction is insignificant, such as the Philippines and west of Australia, that are associated with ocean dynamics and intensified internal variability due to external forcing.
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spelling pubmed-58521512018-03-16 Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise Hu, Aixue Bates, Susan C. Nat Commun Article Observational evidence points to a warming global climate accompanied by rising sea levels which impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities. Studies suggest that internal climate processes can modulate projected future sea level rise (SLR) regionally. It is not clear whether this modulation depends on the future climate pathways. Here, by analyzing two sets of ensemble simulations from a climate model, we investigate the potential reduction of SLR, as a result of steric and dynamic oceanographic affects alone, achieved by following a lower emission scenario instead of business-as-usual one over the twenty-first century and how it may be modulated regionally by internal climate variability. Results show almost no statistically significant difference in steric and dynamic SLR on both global and regional scales in the near-term between the two scenarios, but statistically significant SLR reduction for the global mean and many regions later in the century (2061–2080). However, there are regions where the reduction is insignificant, such as the Philippines and west of Australia, that are associated with ocean dynamics and intensified internal variability due to external forcing. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-03-14 /pmc/articles/PMC5852151/ /pubmed/29540828 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03474-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Hu, Aixue
Bates, Susan C.
Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise
title Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise
title_full Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise
title_fullStr Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise
title_full_unstemmed Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise
title_short Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise
title_sort internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5852151/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29540828
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03474-8
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