Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe

Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introd...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Massad, Eduardo, Amaku, Marcos, Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra, Struchiner, Claudio José, Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento, Khan, Kamran, Liu-Helmersson, Jing, Rocklöv, Joacim, Kraemer, Moritz U. G., Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5854675/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29545610
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5
_version_ 1783306951204012032
author Massad, Eduardo
Amaku, Marcos
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Struchiner, Claudio José
Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
Khan, Kamran
Liu-Helmersson, Jing
Rocklöv, Joacim
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
author_facet Massad, Eduardo
Amaku, Marcos
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Struchiner, Claudio José
Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
Khan, Kamran
Liu-Helmersson, Jing
Rocklöv, Joacim
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
author_sort Massad, Eduardo
collection PubMed
description Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-5854675
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2018
publisher Nature Publishing Group UK
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-58546752018-03-22 Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe Massad, Eduardo Amaku, Marcos Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Struchiner, Claudio José Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento Khan, Kamran Liu-Helmersson, Jing Rocklöv, Joacim Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Wilder-Smith, Annelies Sci Rep Article Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-03-15 /pmc/articles/PMC5854675/ /pubmed/29545610 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Massad, Eduardo
Amaku, Marcos
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Struchiner, Claudio José
Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
Khan, Kamran
Liu-Helmersson, Jing
Rocklöv, Joacim
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe
title Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe
title_full Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe
title_fullStr Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe
title_short Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe
title_sort estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in europe
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5854675/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29545610
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5
work_keys_str_mv AT massadeduardo estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope
AT amakumarcos estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope
AT coutinhofranciscoantoniobezerra estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope
AT struchinerclaudiojose estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope
AT burattinimarcelonascimento estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope
AT khankamran estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope
AT liuhelmerssonjing estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope
AT rocklovjoacim estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope
AT kraemermoritzug estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope
AT wildersmithannelies estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope