Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe
Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introd...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2018
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5854675/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29545610 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5 |
_version_ | 1783306951204012032 |
---|---|
author | Massad, Eduardo Amaku, Marcos Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Struchiner, Claudio José Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento Khan, Kamran Liu-Helmersson, Jing Rocklöv, Joacim Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Wilder-Smith, Annelies |
author_facet | Massad, Eduardo Amaku, Marcos Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Struchiner, Claudio José Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento Khan, Kamran Liu-Helmersson, Jing Rocklöv, Joacim Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Wilder-Smith, Annelies |
author_sort | Massad, Eduardo |
collection | PubMed |
description | Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5854675 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-58546752018-03-22 Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe Massad, Eduardo Amaku, Marcos Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Struchiner, Claudio José Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento Khan, Kamran Liu-Helmersson, Jing Rocklöv, Joacim Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Wilder-Smith, Annelies Sci Rep Article Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-03-15 /pmc/articles/PMC5854675/ /pubmed/29545610 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Massad, Eduardo Amaku, Marcos Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Struchiner, Claudio José Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento Khan, Kamran Liu-Helmersson, Jing Rocklöv, Joacim Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Wilder-Smith, Annelies Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe |
title | Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe |
title_full | Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe |
title_fullStr | Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe |
title_short | Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe |
title_sort | estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in europe |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5854675/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29545610 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT massadeduardo estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope AT amakumarcos estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope AT coutinhofranciscoantoniobezerra estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope AT struchinerclaudiojose estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope AT burattinimarcelonascimento estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope AT khankamran estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope AT liuhelmerssonjing estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope AT rocklovjoacim estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope AT kraemermoritzug estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope AT wildersmithannelies estimatingtheprobabilityofdenguevirusintroductionandsecondaryautochthonouscasesineurope |