Identification of Pancreatic Injury in Patients with Elevated Amylase or Lipase Level Using a Decision Tree Classifier: A Cross-Sectional Retrospective Analysis in a Level I Trauma Center

Background: In trauma patients, pancreatic injury is rare; however, if undiagnosed, it is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. Few predictive models are available for the identification of pancreatic injury in trauma patients with elevated serum pancreatic enzymes. In this study, we aimed to construct a model for predicting pancreatic injury using a decision tree (DT) algorithm, along with data obtained from a population-based trauma registry in a Level I trauma center. Methods: A total of 991 patients with elevated serum levels of amylase (>137 U/L) or lipase (>51 U/L), including 46 patients with pancreatic injury and 865 without pancreatic injury between January 2009 and December 2016, were allocated in a ratio of 7:3 to training (n = 642) or test (n = 269) sets. Using the data on patient and injury characteristics as well as laboratory data, the DT algorithm with Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was performed based on the Gini impurity index, using the rpart function in the rpart package in R. Results: Among the trauma patients with elevated amylase or lipase levels, three groups of patients were identified as having a high risk of pancreatic injury, using the DT model. These included (1) 69% of the patients with lipase level ≥306 U/L; (2) 79% of the patients with lipase level between 154 U/L and 305 U/L and shock index (SI) ≥ 0.72; and (3) 80% of the patients with lipase level <154 U/L with abdomen injury, glucose level <158 mg/dL, amylase level <90 U/L, and neutrophil percentage ≥76%; they had all sustained pancreatic injury. With all variables in the model, the DT achieved an accuracy of 97.9% (sensitivity of 91.4% and specificity of 98.3%) for the training set. In the test set, the DT achieved an accuracy of 93.3%, sensitivity of 72.7%, and specificity of 94.2%. Conclusions: We established a DT model using lipase, SI, and additional conditions (injury to the abdomen, glucose level <158 mg/dL, amylase level <90 U/L, and neutrophils ≥76%) as important nodes to predict three groups of patients with a high risk of pancreatic injury. The proposed decision-making algorithm may help in identifying pancreatic injury among trauma patients with elevated serum amylase or lipase levels.