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Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally a...

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Autores principales: Jędrzejewski, Włodzimierz, Robinson, Hugh S., Abarca, Maria, Zeller, Katherine A., Velasquez, Grisel, Paemelaere, Evi A. D., Goldberg, Joshua F., Payan, Esteban, Hoogesteijn, Rafael, Boede, Ernesto O., Schmidt, Krzysztof, Lampo, Margarita, Viloria, Ángel L., Carreño, Rafael, Robinson, Nathaniel, Lukacs, Paul M., Nowak, J. Joshua, Salom-Pérez, Roberto, Castañeda, Franklin, Boron, Valeria, Quigley, Howard
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5868828/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29579129
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194719
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author Jędrzejewski, Włodzimierz
Robinson, Hugh S.
Abarca, Maria
Zeller, Katherine A.
Velasquez, Grisel
Paemelaere, Evi A. D.
Goldberg, Joshua F.
Payan, Esteban
Hoogesteijn, Rafael
Boede, Ernesto O.
Schmidt, Krzysztof
Lampo, Margarita
Viloria, Ángel L.
Carreño, Rafael
Robinson, Nathaniel
Lukacs, Paul M.
Nowak, J. Joshua
Salom-Pérez, Roberto
Castañeda, Franklin
Boron, Valeria
Quigley, Howard
author_facet Jędrzejewski, Włodzimierz
Robinson, Hugh S.
Abarca, Maria
Zeller, Katherine A.
Velasquez, Grisel
Paemelaere, Evi A. D.
Goldberg, Joshua F.
Payan, Esteban
Hoogesteijn, Rafael
Boede, Ernesto O.
Schmidt, Krzysztof
Lampo, Margarita
Viloria, Ángel L.
Carreño, Rafael
Robinson, Nathaniel
Lukacs, Paul M.
Nowak, J. Joshua
Salom-Pérez, Roberto
Castañeda, Franklin
Boron, Valeria
Quigley, Howard
author_sort Jędrzejewski, Włodzimierz
collection PubMed
description Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km(2)) and low human densities (< 1 person/km(2)) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions.
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spelling pubmed-58688282018-04-06 Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca) Jędrzejewski, Włodzimierz Robinson, Hugh S. Abarca, Maria Zeller, Katherine A. Velasquez, Grisel Paemelaere, Evi A. D. Goldberg, Joshua F. Payan, Esteban Hoogesteijn, Rafael Boede, Ernesto O. Schmidt, Krzysztof Lampo, Margarita Viloria, Ángel L. Carreño, Rafael Robinson, Nathaniel Lukacs, Paul M. Nowak, J. Joshua Salom-Pérez, Roberto Castañeda, Franklin Boron, Valeria Quigley, Howard PLoS One Research Article Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km(2)) and low human densities (< 1 person/km(2)) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions. Public Library of Science 2018-03-26 /pmc/articles/PMC5868828/ /pubmed/29579129 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194719 Text en © 2018 Jędrzejewski et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Jędrzejewski, Włodzimierz
Robinson, Hugh S.
Abarca, Maria
Zeller, Katherine A.
Velasquez, Grisel
Paemelaere, Evi A. D.
Goldberg, Joshua F.
Payan, Esteban
Hoogesteijn, Rafael
Boede, Ernesto O.
Schmidt, Krzysztof
Lampo, Margarita
Viloria, Ángel L.
Carreño, Rafael
Robinson, Nathaniel
Lukacs, Paul M.
Nowak, J. Joshua
Salom-Pérez, Roberto
Castañeda, Franklin
Boron, Valeria
Quigley, Howard
Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)
title Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)
title_full Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)
title_fullStr Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)
title_full_unstemmed Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)
title_short Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)
title_sort estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – application to the jaguar (panthera onca)
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5868828/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29579129
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194719
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