Predictors of emotional distress a year or more after diagnosis of cancer: A systematic review of the literature

OBJECTIVE: Why some people recover emotionally after diagnosis and treatment of cancer and others do not is poorly understood. To identify factors around the time of diagnosis that predict longer‐term distress is a necessary step in developing interventions to reduce patients' vulnerability. This review identified the demographic, clinical, social, and psychological factors available at or within 3 months of diagnosis that are reliable predictors of emotional distress at least 12 months later. METHODS: A systematic search of literature for prospective studies addressing our research question and predicting a range of distress outcomes was conducted. Thirty‐nine papers (reporting 36 studies) were subjected to narrative synthesis of the evidence. RESULTS: There was no consistent evidence that demographic, clinical, or social factors reliably predicted longer‐term distress. Of the psychological factors examined, only baseline distress (significant in 26 of 30 relevant papers; 24 of 28 studies) and neuroticism (significant in all 5 papers/studies that examined it) consistently predicted longer‐term distress. The heterogeneity of included studies, particularly in populations studied and methodology, precluded meta‐analytic techniques. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports current clinical guidance advising early assessment of distress as a marker of vulnerability to persistent problems. Additionally, neuroticism is also indicated as a useful marker of vulnerability. However, the review also highlights that more sophisticated research designs, capable of identifying the psychological processes that underlie the association between these marker variables and persistent distress, are needed before more effective early interventions can be developed.