Deriving an optimal threshold of waist circumference for detecting cardiometabolic risk in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND: Waist circumference (WC) thresholds derived from western populations continue to be used in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) despite increasing evidence of ethnic variation in the association between adiposity and cardiometabolic disease and availability of data from African populations. We aimed to derive a SSA-specific optimal WC cut-point for identifying individuals at increased cardiometabolic risk. METHODS: We used individual level cross-sectional data on 24 181 participants aged ⩾15 years from 17 studies conducted between 1990 and 2014 in eight countries in SSA. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to derive optimal WC cut-points for detecting the presence of at least two components of metabolic syndrome (MS), excluding WC. RESULTS: The optimal WC cut-point was 81.2 cm (95% CI 78.5–83.8 cm) and 81.0 cm (95% CI 79.2–82.8 cm) for men and women, respectively, with comparable accuracy in men and women. Sensitivity was higher in women (64%, 95% CI 63–65) than in men (53%, 95% CI 51–55), and increased with the prevalence of obesity. Having WC above the derived cut-point was associated with a twofold probability of having at least two components of MS (age-adjusted odds ratio 2.6, 95% CI 2.4–2.9, for men and 2.2, 95% CI 2.0–2.3, for women). CONCLUSION: The optimal WC cut-point for identifying men at increased cardiometabolic risk is lower (⩾81.2 cm) than current guidelines (⩾94.0 cm) recommend, and similar to that in women in SSA. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these cut-points based on cardiometabolic outcomes.