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Risk factors for long-term mortality in patients admitted with severe infection

BACKGROUND: Severe infection is a main cause of mortality. We aim to describe risk factors for long-term mortality among inpatients with severe infection. METHODS: Prospective cohort study in a 600-bed university hospital in Portugal including all patients with severe infection admitted into intensi...

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Autores principales: Francisco, J., Aragão, I., Cardoso, T.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5887170/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29621990
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-018-3054-4
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author Francisco, J.
Aragão, I.
Cardoso, T.
author_facet Francisco, J.
Aragão, I.
Cardoso, T.
author_sort Francisco, J.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Severe infection is a main cause of mortality. We aim to describe risk factors for long-term mortality among inpatients with severe infection. METHODS: Prospective cohort study in a 600-bed university hospital in Portugal including all patients with severe infection admitted into intensive care, medical, surgical, hematology and nephrology wards over one-year period. The outcome of interest was 5-year mortality following infection. Variables of patient background and infectious episode were studied in association with the main outcome through multiple logistic regression. There were 1013 patients included in the study. Hospital and 5-year mortality rates were 14 and 37%, respectively. RESULTS: Two different models were developed (with and without acute-illness severity scores) and factors independently associated with 5-year mortality were [adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval)]: age = 1.03 per year (1.02-1.04), cancer = 4.36 (1.65–11.53), no comorbidities = 0.4 (0.26–0.62), Karnovsky Index < 70 = 2.25 (1.48–3.40), SAPS (Simplified Acute Physiology Score) II = 1.05 per point (1.03–1.07), positive blood cultures = 1.57 (1.01–2.44) and infection by an ESKAPE pathogen (Enterococcus faecium, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeroginosa and Enterobacter species) = 1.61 (1.00– 2.60); and in the second model [without SAPS II and SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) scores]: age = 1.04 per year (1.03–1.05), cancer = 5.93 (2.26–15.51), chronic haematologic disease = 2.37 (1.14–4.93), no comorbidities = 0.45 (0.29–0.69), Karnovsky Index< 70 = 2.32 (1.54– 3.50), septic shock [reference is infection without SIRS (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome)] = 3.77 (1.80–7.89) and infection by an ESKAPE pathogen = 1.61 (1.00–2.60). Both models presented a good discrimination power with an AU-ROC curve (95% CI) of 0.81 (0.77–0.84) for model 1 and 0.80 (0.76–0.83) for model 2. If only patients that survived hospital admission are included in the model, variables retained are: age = 1.03 per year (1.02–1.05), cancer = 4.69 (1.71–12.83), chronic respiratory disease = 2.27 (1.09–4.69), diabetes mellitus = 1.65 (1.06–2.56), Karnovsky Index < 70 = 2.50 (1.63–3.83) and positive blood cultures = 1.66 (1.04–2.64) with an AU-ROC curve of 0.77 (0.73–0.81). CONCLUSIONS: Age, previous comorbidities, and functional status and infection by an ESKAPE pathogen were consistently associated with long-term prognosis. This information may help in the discussion of individual prognosis and clinical decision-making.
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spelling pubmed-58871702018-04-09 Risk factors for long-term mortality in patients admitted with severe infection Francisco, J. Aragão, I. Cardoso, T. BMC Infect Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: Severe infection is a main cause of mortality. We aim to describe risk factors for long-term mortality among inpatients with severe infection. METHODS: Prospective cohort study in a 600-bed university hospital in Portugal including all patients with severe infection admitted into intensive care, medical, surgical, hematology and nephrology wards over one-year period. The outcome of interest was 5-year mortality following infection. Variables of patient background and infectious episode were studied in association with the main outcome through multiple logistic regression. There were 1013 patients included in the study. Hospital and 5-year mortality rates were 14 and 37%, respectively. RESULTS: Two different models were developed (with and without acute-illness severity scores) and factors independently associated with 5-year mortality were [adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval)]: age = 1.03 per year (1.02-1.04), cancer = 4.36 (1.65–11.53), no comorbidities = 0.4 (0.26–0.62), Karnovsky Index < 70 = 2.25 (1.48–3.40), SAPS (Simplified Acute Physiology Score) II = 1.05 per point (1.03–1.07), positive blood cultures = 1.57 (1.01–2.44) and infection by an ESKAPE pathogen (Enterococcus faecium, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeroginosa and Enterobacter species) = 1.61 (1.00– 2.60); and in the second model [without SAPS II and SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) scores]: age = 1.04 per year (1.03–1.05), cancer = 5.93 (2.26–15.51), chronic haematologic disease = 2.37 (1.14–4.93), no comorbidities = 0.45 (0.29–0.69), Karnovsky Index< 70 = 2.32 (1.54– 3.50), septic shock [reference is infection without SIRS (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome)] = 3.77 (1.80–7.89) and infection by an ESKAPE pathogen = 1.61 (1.00–2.60). Both models presented a good discrimination power with an AU-ROC curve (95% CI) of 0.81 (0.77–0.84) for model 1 and 0.80 (0.76–0.83) for model 2. If only patients that survived hospital admission are included in the model, variables retained are: age = 1.03 per year (1.02–1.05), cancer = 4.69 (1.71–12.83), chronic respiratory disease = 2.27 (1.09–4.69), diabetes mellitus = 1.65 (1.06–2.56), Karnovsky Index < 70 = 2.50 (1.63–3.83) and positive blood cultures = 1.66 (1.04–2.64) with an AU-ROC curve of 0.77 (0.73–0.81). CONCLUSIONS: Age, previous comorbidities, and functional status and infection by an ESKAPE pathogen were consistently associated with long-term prognosis. This information may help in the discussion of individual prognosis and clinical decision-making. BioMed Central 2018-04-05 /pmc/articles/PMC5887170/ /pubmed/29621990 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-018-3054-4 Text en © The Author(s). 2018 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research Article
Francisco, J.
Aragão, I.
Cardoso, T.
Risk factors for long-term mortality in patients admitted with severe infection
title Risk factors for long-term mortality in patients admitted with severe infection
title_full Risk factors for long-term mortality in patients admitted with severe infection
title_fullStr Risk factors for long-term mortality in patients admitted with severe infection
title_full_unstemmed Risk factors for long-term mortality in patients admitted with severe infection
title_short Risk factors for long-term mortality in patients admitted with severe infection
title_sort risk factors for long-term mortality in patients admitted with severe infection
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5887170/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29621990
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-018-3054-4
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