The effect of change in fasting glucose on the risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND: The effect of change in blood glucose levels on the risk of cardiovascular disease among individuals without diabetes is currently unclear. We aimed to examine the association of change in fasting serum glucose with incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality among representative large population. METHODS: We analyzed the data from retrospective cohort of Korean National Health Insurance Service. In total, 260,487 Korean adults aged over 40 years, without diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease at baseline measured change in fasting serum glucose according to the criteria of impaired and diabetic fasting glucose status: normal fasting glucose (NFG, fasting glucose: < 100 mg/dL), impaired fasting glucose (IFG, fasting glucose: 100.0–125.9 mg/dL), and diabetic fasting glucose (DFG, fasting glucose: ≥ 126.0 mg/dL). Compared to the persistently unchanged group (i.e. NFG to NFG or IFG to IFG), Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed in the changed group to obtain the hazards ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for the subsequent median 8-year myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Compared to individuals with persistent NFG (i.e., NFG to NFG), individuals who shifted from NFG to DFG had an increased risk of stroke (HR [95% CI]: 1.19 [1.02–1.38]) and individuals who shifted from NFG to IFG or DFG had increased risks of all-cause mortality (HR [95% CI]: 1.08 [1.02–1.14] for NFG to IFG and 1.56 [1.39–1.75] for NFG to DFG). Compared to individuals with persistent IFG, individuals who shifted from IFG to DFG had an increased risk of MI and all-cause mortality (HR [95% CI]: 1.65 [1.20–2.27] and 1.16 [1.02–1.33], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing fasting glucose in non-diabetic population is associated with risks of the MI, stroke, and all-cause mortality, which is more rapid, more severe. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12933-018-0694-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.