Anthropometric Indices Predict the Development of Hypertension in Normotensive and Pre-Hypertensive Middle-Aged Women in Tianjin, China: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were to investigate the relationship between optimal anthropometric indices and their cut-off values and the incidence of hypertension in a cohort of middle-aged women in China. MATERIAL/METHODS: A cohort of 812 women, aged between 40–70 years were recruited between May 2011 and June 2013. An ideal baseline blood pressure was defined as <120/80 mmHg; pre-hypertension was 120–139/80–89 mmHg; hypertension was ≥140/≥90 mmHg. Anthropometric measurements included waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-height ratio (WHtR). The cohort was divided into an ideal blood pressure group (Group 1) and a pre-hypertensive group (Group 2). Two-year follow-up blood pressure measurements were performed. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis determined the optimal anthropometric indices and cut-off values for developing hypertension. RESULTS: At two-year follow-up, hypertension developed in 9.0% (n=31) in Group 1 and 32.3% (n=121) in Group 2. Logistic regression analysis showed that in both groups, women in the highest quartile for WC, BMI, WHR, and WHtR had a significantly increased risk of developing hypertension compared with the lowest quartile (P<0.05). ROC curve area under the curve (AUC) for these anthropometric indices were greater in Group 1, and for WC in Groups 1 and 2, with the optimal cut-off values greater in Group 1. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of middle-aged women in China, anthropometric indices of obesity were predictive of the development of hypertension during a two-year follow-up period.