Lung Cancer Mortality in Tuscany from 1971 to 2010 and Its Connections with Silicosis: A Space-Cohort Analysis Based on Shared Models

Lung cancer mortality in Tuscany (Italy) for males, from 1971 and 2010, is investigated. A hierarchical Bayesian model for space-time disease mapping is introduced. Such a model belongs to the class of shared random effect models and exploits the birth-cohort as the relevant time dimension. It allows for highlighting common and specific patterns of risk for each birth-cohort. The results show that different birth-cohorts exhibit quite different spatial patterns, even if the socioeconomic status is taken into account. In fact, there were different occupational exposures before and after the Second World War. The birth-cohort 1930–35 exhibits high relative risks related to particular areas. This fact could be connected with occupational exposure to risk factors for silicosis, perhaps a prognostic status for lung cancer.