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Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s)

Long‐term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long‐term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively...

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Autores principales: Yang, Li, Zhang, Chao, Chen, Minhao, Li, Jingxin, Yang, Lei, Huo, Zhaomin, Ahmad, Shahid, Luan, Xiaofeng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5916277/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29721263
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3859
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author Yang, Li
Zhang, Chao
Chen, Minhao
Li, Jingxin
Yang, Lei
Huo, Zhaomin
Ahmad, Shahid
Luan, Xiaofeng
author_facet Yang, Li
Zhang, Chao
Chen, Minhao
Li, Jingxin
Yang, Lei
Huo, Zhaomin
Ahmad, Shahid
Luan, Xiaofeng
author_sort Yang, Li
collection PubMed
description Long‐term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long‐term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long‐term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64–90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black‐billed capercaillie.
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spelling pubmed-59162772018-05-02 Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s) Yang, Li Zhang, Chao Chen, Minhao Li, Jingxin Yang, Lei Huo, Zhaomin Ahmad, Shahid Luan, Xiaofeng Ecol Evol Original Research Long‐term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long‐term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long‐term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64–90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black‐billed capercaillie. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2018-03-23 /pmc/articles/PMC5916277/ /pubmed/29721263 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3859 Text en © 2018 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Research
Yang, Li
Zhang, Chao
Chen, Minhao
Li, Jingxin
Yang, Lei
Huo, Zhaomin
Ahmad, Shahid
Luan, Xiaofeng
Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s)
title Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s)
title_full Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s)
title_fullStr Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s)
title_full_unstemmed Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s)
title_short Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s)
title_sort long‐term ecological data for conservation: range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (tetrao urogalloides) in northeast china (1970s–2070s)
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5916277/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29721263
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3859
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