Ten-year cumulative incidence of epiretinal membranes assessed on fundus photographs. The Beijing Eye Study 2001/2011

PURPOSE: To assess the 10-year incidence and progression of epiretinal membranes (ERMs). METHODS: The population-based longitudinal Beijing Eye Study, which included 4439 subjects (age:40+years) in 2001, was repeated in 2011 with 2695 subjects participating (66.4% of the survivors). The study participants underwent a detailed ophthalmic examination, including retinal photography. Assessing fundus photograohs, ERMs were classified as cellophane macular reflex (CMR) without retinal folds, or as preretinal macular fibrosis (PMF) without or with retinal folds. RESULTS: Fundus photographs were available for 2476 subjects with a mean age of 69.0±7.8 years (range:51–93 years) and mean axial length of 23.3±0.9 mm (range:19.92–26.33mm). The 10-year incidence of ERMs was 8.4% (208/2476 participants; 95% confidence interval (CI):7.4,9.5). ERMs developed bilaterally in 50 (24%) individuals and unilaterally in 158 (76%) persons. The incidence of PMFs with 2.5% (95% CI: 1.9, 3.1) was lower than the incidence of CMRs with 5.9% (95% CI: 5.0, 6.9). Higher 10-year incidence of ERMs was associated with older age (P<0.001; odds ratio (OR): 1.06; 95%CI:1.04,1.09), previous cataract surgery (P = 0.003;OR:3.32;95%CI:1.51,7.29) and presence of a complete posterior vitreous detachment (P = 0.02;OR:1.84;95%CI:1.12,3.02). In the age groups of <60 years, 60–69 years, 70–79 years and 80+years, incidence of ERMs was 3.1%, 10.0%, 14.4% and 10.9%, respectively, with no significant gender difference. CONCLUSIONS: In Chinese aged 40+ years, the 10-year incidence of ERMs (8.4%) increased with older age, previous cataract surgery and complete posterior vitreous detachment. The ten-year incidence was lower for PMFs (2.5%) than for CMRs (5.9%).