Limits on determining the skill of North Atlantic Ocean decadal predictions

The northern North Atlantic is important globally both through its impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and through widespread atmospheric teleconnections. The region has been shown to be potentially predictable a decade ahead with the skill of decadal predictions assessed against reanalyses of the ocean state. Here, we show that the prediction skill in this region is strongly dependent on the choice of reanalysis used for validation, and describe the causes. Multiannual skill in key metrics such as Labrador Sea density and the AMOC depends on more than simply the choice of the prediction model. Instead, this skill is related to the similarity between the nature of interannual density variability in the underlying climate model and the chosen reanalysis. The climate models used in these decadal predictions are also used in climate projections, which raises questions about the sensitivity of these projections to the models’ innate North Atlantic density variability.