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Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China
BACKGROUND: The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region. METHODS: A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five vi...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5924679/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29704895 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40249-018-0423-6 |
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author | Chen, Tian-Mu Zhang, Shao-Sen Feng, Jun Xia, Zhi-Gui Luo, Chun-Hai Zeng, Xu-Can Guo, Xiang-Rui Lin, Zu-Rui Zhou, Hong-Ning Zhou, Shui-Sen |
author_facet | Chen, Tian-Mu Zhang, Shao-Sen Feng, Jun Xia, Zhi-Gui Luo, Chun-Hai Zeng, Xu-Can Guo, Xiang-Rui Lin, Zu-Rui Zhou, Hong-Ning Zhou, Shui-Sen |
author_sort | Chen, Tian-Mu |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region. METHODS: A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections, and imported cases were identified in each village (between January 2013 and September 2016). A stochastic simulation model (SSM) was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability, according to the mechanisms of malaria importation. RESULTS: Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages, with a 4-year average of 1 case/year (range: 0–5 cases/year). No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016. The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012 (range: 0.000–0.033). The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56% (range: 28.38–71.95%). Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection. The SSM model fit the investigated data (χ(2) = 0.487, P = 0.485). The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011 (range: 0.0048–0.1585). The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village. CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region. Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-018-0423-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5924679 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-59246792018-05-01 Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China Chen, Tian-Mu Zhang, Shao-Sen Feng, Jun Xia, Zhi-Gui Luo, Chun-Hai Zeng, Xu-Can Guo, Xiang-Rui Lin, Zu-Rui Zhou, Hong-Ning Zhou, Shui-Sen Infect Dis Poverty Research Article BACKGROUND: The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region. METHODS: A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections, and imported cases were identified in each village (between January 2013 and September 2016). A stochastic simulation model (SSM) was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability, according to the mechanisms of malaria importation. RESULTS: Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages, with a 4-year average of 1 case/year (range: 0–5 cases/year). No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016. The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012 (range: 0.000–0.033). The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56% (range: 28.38–71.95%). Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection. The SSM model fit the investigated data (χ(2) = 0.487, P = 0.485). The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011 (range: 0.0048–0.1585). The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village. CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region. Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-018-0423-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. BioMed Central 2018-04-29 /pmc/articles/PMC5924679/ /pubmed/29704895 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40249-018-0423-6 Text en © The Author(s). 2018 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Chen, Tian-Mu Zhang, Shao-Sen Feng, Jun Xia, Zhi-Gui Luo, Chun-Hai Zeng, Xu-Can Guo, Xiang-Rui Lin, Zu-Rui Zhou, Hong-Ning Zhou, Shui-Sen Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China |
title | Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China |
title_full | Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China |
title_fullStr | Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China |
title_full_unstemmed | Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China |
title_short | Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China |
title_sort | mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the china-myanmar border region of yunnan province, china |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5924679/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29704895 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40249-018-0423-6 |
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