Prognostic Factors for Short‐term Survival in Patients with Stage IV Non‐small Cell Lung Cancer

Prognostic factors which can forecast short‐term survival in patients with stage IV non‐small cell lung cancer have not been well evaluated. Characteristics of such factors may be different from those for overall survival, and would be an important eligibility criterion for clinical trials of chemotherapy. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 158 patients with stage IV non‐small cell lung cancer whose performance status was 0, 1 or 2. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models revealed demographic variables which significantly correlated with the survival at 8 or 12 weeks. The univariate model showed the following significant variables: T factor, N factor, number of organs with metastases, grade of performance status, weight loss within 6 months, evidence of metastasis either at bone or lymph node, and lactate dehydrogenase level. The subsequent multivariate model demonstrated that both grade of performance status under 2 and number of metastasized organs less than 3 are important factors for 8‐ or 12‐week survival. The survival rate in patients meeting the two criteria (grade of performance status under 2 and number of metastasized organs less than 3) and in those meeting only one of them was 93% versus 80% at 8 weeks (P=0.030) and 88% versus 62% at 12 weeks (P<0.001), respectively. Grade of performance status and number of organs with metastases appear to be important prognostic factors for short‐term survival in patients with stage IV non‐small cell lung cancer.