Simple score to predict risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis after pegylated interferon and ribavirin therapy

PURPOSE: Eradication of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) after interferon-based therapy and its association with the reduction of risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in HCV-infected patients with advanced fibrosis is controversial. The study is aimed to develop a simple scoring model for HCC prediction among advanced fibrotic chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients after pegylated interferon (pegIFN) and ribavirin (RBV) therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We enrolled 271 biopsy-proven CHC patients with advanced fibrosis between 2003 and 2016, and divided them into non-HCC (n=211) and HCC (n=60) groups. The median observation duration was 6.0 years (range: 0.9–12.6 years). RESULTS: The HCC prevalence after pegIFN and RBV therapy in CHC patients with sustained virologic response (SVR) and without SVR was 14.7% and 32.2%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression showed age ≥59.5 years old at initiation of therapy (HR: 2.542, 95% CI: 1.390–4.650, P=0.002), pretreatment total bilirubin ≥1.1 mg/dL (HR: 2.630, 95% CI: 1.420–4.871, P=0.002), pretreatment platelet counts <146.5 × 10(3)/μL (HR: 2.751, 95% CI: 1.373–5.511, P=0.004), no achievement of SVR (HR: 2.331, 95% CI: 1.277–4.253, P=0.006), and no diabetes at treatment initiation (HR: 3.085, 95% CI: 1.283–7.418, P=0.012) were significant predictors of HCC development. The scoring model consisted of the five categorical predictors and had an optimal cutoff point of 2.5. The area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of the scoring model was 0.774±0.035 (P<0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of the cutoff value to detect HCC were 81.3% and 57.5%. The 5-year and 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 4.9% and 10.0% in patients with simple score ≤2; and 25.9% and 44.6% in patients with simple score ≥3 (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: The simple clinical-guided score has high discriminatory power for HCC prediction in advanced fibrotic CHC patients after pegIFN and RBV therapy.