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Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms

OBJECTIVES: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real wo...

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Autores principales: Atkinson, Jo-An, Knowles, Dylan, Wiggers, John, Livingston, Michael, Room, Robin, Prodan, Ante, McDonnell, Geoff, O’Donnell, Eloise, Jones, Sandra, Haber, Paul S., Muscatello, David, Ezard, Nadine, Phung, Nghi, Freebairn, Louise, Indig, Devon, Rychetnik, Lucie, Ananthapavan, Jaithri, Wutzke, Sonia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5938302/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29051984
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y
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author Atkinson, Jo-An
Knowles, Dylan
Wiggers, John
Livingston, Michael
Room, Robin
Prodan, Ante
McDonnell, Geoff
O’Donnell, Eloise
Jones, Sandra
Haber, Paul S.
Muscatello, David
Ezard, Nadine
Phung, Nghi
Freebairn, Louise
Indig, Devon
Rychetnik, Lucie
Ananthapavan, Jaithri
Wutzke, Sonia
author_facet Atkinson, Jo-An
Knowles, Dylan
Wiggers, John
Livingston, Michael
Room, Robin
Prodan, Ante
McDonnell, Geoff
O’Donnell, Eloise
Jones, Sandra
Haber, Paul S.
Muscatello, David
Ezard, Nadine
Phung, Nghi
Freebairn, Louise
Indig, Devon
Rychetnik, Lucie
Ananthapavan, Jaithri
Wutzke, Sonia
author_sort Atkinson, Jo-An
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. METHODS: A consortium of Australia’s leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. RESULTS: A 19.5 ± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 ± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 ± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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spelling pubmed-59383022018-05-11 Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms Atkinson, Jo-An Knowles, Dylan Wiggers, John Livingston, Michael Room, Robin Prodan, Ante McDonnell, Geoff O’Donnell, Eloise Jones, Sandra Haber, Paul S. Muscatello, David Ezard, Nadine Phung, Nghi Freebairn, Louise Indig, Devon Rychetnik, Lucie Ananthapavan, Jaithri Wutzke, Sonia Int J Public Health Original Article OBJECTIVES: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. METHODS: A consortium of Australia’s leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. RESULTS: A 19.5 ± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 ± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 ± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Springer International Publishing 2017-10-19 2018 /pmc/articles/PMC5938302/ /pubmed/29051984 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
spellingShingle Original Article
Atkinson, Jo-An
Knowles, Dylan
Wiggers, John
Livingston, Michael
Room, Robin
Prodan, Ante
McDonnell, Geoff
O’Donnell, Eloise
Jones, Sandra
Haber, Paul S.
Muscatello, David
Ezard, Nadine
Phung, Nghi
Freebairn, Louise
Indig, Devon
Rychetnik, Lucie
Ananthapavan, Jaithri
Wutzke, Sonia
Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
title Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
title_full Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
title_fullStr Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
title_full_unstemmed Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
title_short Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
title_sort harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5938302/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29051984
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y
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