Drivers of demographic decline across the annual cycle of a threatened migratory bird

Migratory species are rapidly declining but we rarely know which periods of the annual cycle are limiting for most species. This knowledge is needed to effectively allocate conservation resources to the periods of the annual cycle that best promote species recovery. We examined demographic trends and response to human footprint for Canada warblers (Cardellina canadensis), a threatened Neotropical migrant, using range-wide data (1993–2016) from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program on the breeding grounds. Declines in abundance were steepest in the eastern breeding region, followed by the western region. Breeding productivity did not decline in any region. In contrast, we observed declining recruitment in all regions, low apparent survival in the east and west, and a decline in apparent survival in the east. Abundance declined with increasing disturbance around MAPS stations. Between 1993 and 2009, the human footprint index on the breeding range increased by 0.11% in contrast to a 14% increase on the wintering range. Landscape-scale disturbance on the breeding grounds may influence abundance in some regions; however, the observed trends in demography and footprint suggests limitation during the non-breeding period as the likely driver of overall declines, particularly for eastern populations.