Why local air pollution is more than daily peaks: modelling policies in a city in order to avoid premature deaths

We use a predator–prey representation of an urban system to analyse how policy interventions can prevent the adverse effects of air pollution on people’s health. The number of residents is treated as prey variable, and particulate matter that consists of particles with a diameter of up to 10 micrometres (PM10) as predator variable. This representation allows integration of population trends and the effects of environmental interventions on the average level of PM10 concentration (which establishes a baseline for the potential health burden for residents). For the case of Graz, Austria, we illustrate the insights generated regarding the interdependency of market-based and technological pollution controls, and propose an indicator that assesses the cost of delayed interventions by counting additional premature deaths caused by polluted environments.