Morning surge in blood pressure using a random‐effects multiple‐component cosinor model

Blood pressure (BP) fluctuates throughout the day. The pattern it follows represents one of the most important circadian rhythms in the human body. For example, morning BP surge has been suggested as a potential risk factor for cardiovascular events occurring in the morning, but the accurate quantification of this phenomenon remains a challenge. Here, we outline a novel method to quantify morning surge. We demonstrate how the most commonly used method to model 24‐hour BP, the single cosinor approach, can be extended to a multiple‐component cosinor random‐effects model. We outline how this model can be used to obtain a measure of morning BP surge by obtaining derivatives of the model fit. The model is compared with a functional principal component analysis that determines the main components of variability in the data. Data from the Mitchelstown Study, a population‐based study of Irish adults (n = 2047), were used where a subsample (1207) underwent 24‐hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. We demonstrate that our 2‐component model provided a significant improvement in fit compared with a single model and a similar fit to a more complex model captured by b‐splines using functional principal component analysis. The estimate of the average maximum slope was 2.857 mmHg/30 min (bootstrap estimates; 95% CI: 2.855‐2.858 mmHg/30 min). Simulation results allowed us to quantify the between‐individual SD in maximum slopes, which was 1.02 mmHg/30 min. By obtaining derivatives we have demonstrated a novel approach to quantify morning BP surge and its variation between individuals. This is the first demonstration of cosinor approach to obtain a measure of morning surge.