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Guillain–Barré syndrome risk among individuals infected with Zika virus: a multi-country assessment

BACKGROUND: Countries with ongoing outbreaks of Zika virus have observed a notable rise in reported cases of Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS), with mounting evidence of a causal link between Zika virus infection and the neurological syndrome. However, the risk of GBS following a Zika virus infection is...

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Autores principales: Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Luis, Delorey, Mark J., Sejvar, James J., Johansson, Michael A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5952697/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29759069
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-018-1052-4
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author Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Luis
Delorey, Mark J.
Sejvar, James J.
Johansson, Michael A.
author_facet Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Luis
Delorey, Mark J.
Sejvar, James J.
Johansson, Michael A.
author_sort Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Luis
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Countries with ongoing outbreaks of Zika virus have observed a notable rise in reported cases of Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS), with mounting evidence of a causal link between Zika virus infection and the neurological syndrome. However, the risk of GBS following a Zika virus infection is not well characterized. In this work, we used data from 11 locations with publicly available data to estimate the risk of GBS following an infection with Zika virus, as well as the location-specific incidence of infection and the number of suspect GBS cases reported per infection. METHODS: We built a mathematical inference framework utilizing data from 11 locations that had reported suspect Zika and GBS cases, two with completed outbreaks prior to 2015 (French Polynesia and Yap) and nine others in the Americas covering partial outbreaks and where transmission was ongoing as of early 2017. RESULTS: We estimated that 2.0 (95% credible interval 0.5–4.5) reported GBS cases may occur per 10,000 Zika virus infections. The frequency of reported suspect Zika cases varied substantially and was highly uncertain, with a mean of 0.11 (95% credible interval 0.01–0.24) suspect cases reported per infection. CONCLUSIONS: These estimates can help efforts to prepare for the GBS cases that may occur during Zika epidemics and highlight the need to better understand the relationship between infection and the reported incidence of clinical disease. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-018-1052-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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spelling pubmed-59526972018-05-21 Guillain–Barré syndrome risk among individuals infected with Zika virus: a multi-country assessment Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Luis Delorey, Mark J. Sejvar, James J. Johansson, Michael A. BMC Med Research Article BACKGROUND: Countries with ongoing outbreaks of Zika virus have observed a notable rise in reported cases of Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS), with mounting evidence of a causal link between Zika virus infection and the neurological syndrome. However, the risk of GBS following a Zika virus infection is not well characterized. In this work, we used data from 11 locations with publicly available data to estimate the risk of GBS following an infection with Zika virus, as well as the location-specific incidence of infection and the number of suspect GBS cases reported per infection. METHODS: We built a mathematical inference framework utilizing data from 11 locations that had reported suspect Zika and GBS cases, two with completed outbreaks prior to 2015 (French Polynesia and Yap) and nine others in the Americas covering partial outbreaks and where transmission was ongoing as of early 2017. RESULTS: We estimated that 2.0 (95% credible interval 0.5–4.5) reported GBS cases may occur per 10,000 Zika virus infections. The frequency of reported suspect Zika cases varied substantially and was highly uncertain, with a mean of 0.11 (95% credible interval 0.01–0.24) suspect cases reported per infection. CONCLUSIONS: These estimates can help efforts to prepare for the GBS cases that may occur during Zika epidemics and highlight the need to better understand the relationship between infection and the reported incidence of clinical disease. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-018-1052-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. BioMed Central 2018-05-15 /pmc/articles/PMC5952697/ /pubmed/29759069 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-018-1052-4 Text en © The Author(s). 2018 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research Article
Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Luis
Delorey, Mark J.
Sejvar, James J.
Johansson, Michael A.
Guillain–Barré syndrome risk among individuals infected with Zika virus: a multi-country assessment
title Guillain–Barré syndrome risk among individuals infected with Zika virus: a multi-country assessment
title_full Guillain–Barré syndrome risk among individuals infected with Zika virus: a multi-country assessment
title_fullStr Guillain–Barré syndrome risk among individuals infected with Zika virus: a multi-country assessment
title_full_unstemmed Guillain–Barré syndrome risk among individuals infected with Zika virus: a multi-country assessment
title_short Guillain–Barré syndrome risk among individuals infected with Zika virus: a multi-country assessment
title_sort guillain–barré syndrome risk among individuals infected with zika virus: a multi-country assessment
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5952697/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29759069
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-018-1052-4
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