Whole body metabolic tumor volume is a prognostic marker in patients with newly diagnosed stage 3B non-small cell lung cancer, confirmed with external validation

PURPOSE: TNM Stage 3B encompasses a wide range of primary tumor and nodal metastatic tumor burden. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of quantitative FDG PET/CT parameters in patients with newly diagnosed Stage 3B Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Institutional review board approved retrospective study identified patients diagnosed with Stage 3B NSCLC (8(th) edition TNM classification) on baseline FDG PET/CT at two medical centers (Medical centers A and B), between Feb 2004 and Dec 2014. Patients were excluded if they had prior NSCLC treatment or recent diagnosis of a second primary cancer. Quantitative FDG PET/CT parameters including whole body metabolic tumor volume (MTVwb), total lesion glycolysis (TLGwb), and maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmaxwb) were measured from baseline PET/CT using Edge method with Mimvista software. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). Cox proportional hazard regression and Kaplan-Meier overall survival analyses were used to test for an association between OS and quantitative FDG PET/CT parameters. The distributions of MTVwb, TLGwb, SUVmaxwb were skewed, so a natural logarithm transformation was applied and the transformed variables [(ln(MTVwb), ln(TLGwb), and ln(SUVmaxwb)] were used in the analysis. RESULTS: The training set included 110 patients from center A with Stage 3B NSCLC. 78.2% of patients expired during follow-up. Median OS was 14 months. 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year OS was 56.5%, 34.6% and 13.9%, respectively. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed no significant difference in OS on the basis of age, gender, histology, ln(TLGwb), or ln(SUVmaxwb). ln(MTVwb) was positively associated with OS [hazard ratio (HR) of 1.23, p = 0.037]. This association persisted on multivariate Cox regression analysis (HR 1.28, p = 0.043), with adjustments for age, gender, treatment and tumor histology. External validation with 44 patients from center B confirmed increasing MTVwb was associated significantly worse OS. An MTVwb cut-off point of 85.6 mL significantly stratified Stage 3B NSCLC patient prognosis. CONCLUSION: MTVwb is a prognostic marker for OS in patients with Stage 3B NSCLC, independent of age, gender, treatment, and tumor histology.