Long-term risk for end-stage kidney disease and death in a large population-based cohort

Knowledge of metabolic risk factors for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in the general population is limited when considering the competing event death in risk analysis. The aim of our prospective observational study was to investigate how blood pressure and metabolic factors might influence the risks for ESKD and death before ESKD in a large Austrian population-based cohort with long-term follow-up. 177,255 participants (53.8% women; mean age 42.5 years) were recruited between 1988 and 2005 and linked to the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry and the National Mortality Registry. Over a mean follow-up of 16 years 358 participants reached ESKD and 19,512 participants died. Applying fully adjusted cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models elevated fasting blood glucose, hypertension, hypertrigylceridemia and hypercholesterolemia were associated with a higher relative risk for ESKD than for death before ESKD, whereas elevated γ-glutamyltransferase was associated with an increased relative risk of death but not ESKD. Results were similar using continuous or categorical exposure variable measures in the general cohort but differed in selected high-risk populations. These findings might help improve the design of renal risk factor modification trials and kidney disease awareness and prevention programs in the general population, which may ultimately decrease the burden of ESKD.