Progression of the Radiologic Severity Index predicts mortality in patients with parainfluenza virus-associated lower respiratory infections

BACKGROUND: Radiologic severity may predict adverse outcomes after lower respiratory tract infection (LRI). However, few studies have quantified radiologic severity of LRIs. We sought to evaluate whether a semi-quantitative scoring tool, the Radiologic Severity Index (RSI), predicted mortality after parainfluenza virus (PIV)-associated LRI. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of consecutively-enrolled adult patients with hematologic malignancy or hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and with PIV detected in nasal wash who subsequently developed radiologically-confirmed LRI. We measured RSI (range 0–72) in each chest radiograph during the first 30 days after LRI diagnosis. We used extended Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors associated with mortality after onset of LRI with all-cause mortality as our failure event. RESULTS: After adjustment for patient characteristics, each 1-point increase in RSI was associated with an increased hazard of death (HR 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.21, p = 0.0008). Baseline RSI was not predictive of death, but both peak RSI and the change from baseline to peak RSI (delta-RSI) predicted mortality (odds ratio for mortality, peak: 1.11 [95%CI 1.04–1.18], delta-RSI: 1.14 [95%CI 1.06–1.22]). A delta-RSI of ≥19.5 was 89% sensitive and 91% specific in predicting 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the RSI offers precise, informative and reliable assessments of LRI severity. Progression of RSI predicts 30-day mortality after LRI, but baseline RSI does not. Our results were derived from a cohort of patients with PIV-associated LRI, but can be applied in validated in other populations of patients with LRI.