What is the impact of human leukocyte antigen mismatching on graft survival and mortality in renal transplantation? A meta-analysis of 23 cohort studies involving 486,608 recipients

BACKGROUND: The magnitude effects of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatching on post-transplant outcomes of kidney transplantation remain controversial. We aim to quantitatively assess the associations of HLA mismatching with graft survival and mortality in adult kidney transplantation. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from their inception to December, 2016. Priori clinical outcomes were overall graft failure, death-censored graft failure and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 23 cohort studies covering 486,608 recipients were selected. HLA per mismatch was significant associated with increased risks of overall graft failure (hazard ratio (HR), 1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05–1.07), death-censored graft failure (HR: 1.09; 95% CI 1.06–1.12) and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02–1.07). Besides, HLA-DR mismatches were significant associated with worse overall graft survival (HR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.05–1.21). For HLA-A locus, the association was insignificant (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.98–1.14). We observed no significant association between HLA-B locus and overall graft failure (HR: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.90–1.15). In subgroup analyses, we found recipient sample size and ethnicity maybe the potential sources of heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: HLA mismatching was still a critical prognostic factor that affects graft and recipient survival. HLA-DR mismatching has a substantial impact on recipient’s graft survival. HLA-A mismatching has minor but insignificant impact on graft survival outcomes. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12882-018-0908-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.