Development of a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for radiation-induced hypothyroidism in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to build a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model of radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients and to compare it with other four published NTCP models to evaluate its efficacy. METHODS: Medical notes of 174 NPC patients after radiotherapy were reviewed. Biochemical hypothyroidism was defined as an elevated level of serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) value with a normal or decreased level of serum free thyroxine (fT4) after radiotherapy. Logistic regression with leave-one-out cross-validation was performed to establish the NTCP model. Model performance was evaluated and compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in our NPC cohort. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 24 months, 39 (22.4%) patients developed biochemical hypothyroidism. Gender, chemotherapy, the percentage thyroid volume receiving more than 50 Gy (V(50)), and the maximum dose of the pituitary (P(max)) were identified as the most predictive factors for RHT. A NTCP model based on these four parameters were developed. The model comparison was made in our NPC cohort and our NTCP model performed better in RHT prediction than the other four models. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed a four-variable NTCP model for biochemical hypothyroidism in NPC patients post-radiotherapy. Our NTCP model for RHT presents a high prediction capability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This is a retrospective study without registration. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-018-4348-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.