Incremental prognostic value of coronary computed tomography angiography over coronary calcium scoring for major adverse cardiac events in elderly asymptomatic individuals

AIMS: Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) have prognostic value for coronary artery disease (CAD) events beyond traditional risk assessment. Age is a risk factor with very high weight and little is known regarding the incremental value of CCTA over CAC for predicting cardiac events in older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 27 125 individuals undergoing CCTA, a total of 3145 asymptomatic adults were identified. This study sample was categorized according to tertiles of age (cut-off points: 52 and 62 years). CAD severity was classified as 0, 1–49, and ≥50% maximal stenosis in CCTA, and further categorized according to number of vessels ≥50% stenosis. The Framingham 10-year risk score (FRS) and CACS were employed as major covariates. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were defined as a composite of all-cause death or non-fatal MI. During a median follow-up of 26 months (interquartile range: 18–41 months), 59 (1.9%) MACE occurred. For patients in the top age tertile, CCTA improved discrimination beyond a model included FRS and CACS (C-statistic: 0.75 vs. 0.70, P-value = 0.015). Likewise, the addition of CCTA improved category-free net reclassification (cNRI) of MACE in patients within the highest age tertile (e.g. cNRI = 0.75; proportion of events/non-events reclassified were 50 and 25%, respectively; P-value <0.05, all). CCTA displayed no incremental benefit beyond FRS and CACS for prediction of MACE in the lower age tertiles. CONCLUSION: CCTA provides added prognostic value beyond cardiac risk factors and CACS for the prediction of MACE in asymptomatic older adults.