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Modeling of the HIV epidemic and continuum of care in French Guiana
BACKGROUND: In order to compute the continuum of care for French Guiana, it is necessary to estimate the total number of persons living with HIV. The main objective was to determine how many persons were infected with HIV and how many were unaware of it. METHODS: We used 2 different models to calcul...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5967714/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29795698 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0197990 |
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author | Nacher, Mathieu Adriouch, Leila Huber, Florence Vantilcke, Vincent Djossou, Félix Elenga, Narcisse Adenis, Antoine Couppié, Pierre |
author_facet | Nacher, Mathieu Adriouch, Leila Huber, Florence Vantilcke, Vincent Djossou, Félix Elenga, Narcisse Adenis, Antoine Couppié, Pierre |
author_sort | Nacher, Mathieu |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: In order to compute the continuum of care for French Guiana, it is necessary to estimate the total number of persons living with HIV. The main objective was to determine how many persons were infected with HIV and how many were unaware of it. METHODS: We used 2 different models to calculate the total number of persons infected with HIV: Spectrum’s AIM module using CSAVR to compute incidence from case registration and vital statistics; and the ECDC model from the French Guiana HIV cohort data. RESULT: The present results show that both models led to similar results regarding the incident number of cases (i.e. for 2016 174 versus 161) and the total HIV population (in 2016 3206 versus 3539) respectively. The ECDC modeling tool showed that the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections declined from 50% in 1990 to 15% in 2015. This amounted to a stable or slightly increasing total number of undiagnosed patients of 520. CONCLUSIONS: The estimations of the total HIV population by both models show that the HIV population is still growing. The incidence rate declined in 2000 and the decline of the number of newly acquired HIV infections, after a decline after 2003 is offset by population growth. The proportion of undiagnosed infections has declined to 15% but the number of undiagnosed infections remains stable. The HIV cascade shows that despite good results for treatment in care, reaching the 90*90*90 UNAIDS target may be difficult because a significant proportion of patients are lost to follow-up. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5967714 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-59677142018-06-08 Modeling of the HIV epidemic and continuum of care in French Guiana Nacher, Mathieu Adriouch, Leila Huber, Florence Vantilcke, Vincent Djossou, Félix Elenga, Narcisse Adenis, Antoine Couppié, Pierre PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: In order to compute the continuum of care for French Guiana, it is necessary to estimate the total number of persons living with HIV. The main objective was to determine how many persons were infected with HIV and how many were unaware of it. METHODS: We used 2 different models to calculate the total number of persons infected with HIV: Spectrum’s AIM module using CSAVR to compute incidence from case registration and vital statistics; and the ECDC model from the French Guiana HIV cohort data. RESULT: The present results show that both models led to similar results regarding the incident number of cases (i.e. for 2016 174 versus 161) and the total HIV population (in 2016 3206 versus 3539) respectively. The ECDC modeling tool showed that the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections declined from 50% in 1990 to 15% in 2015. This amounted to a stable or slightly increasing total number of undiagnosed patients of 520. CONCLUSIONS: The estimations of the total HIV population by both models show that the HIV population is still growing. The incidence rate declined in 2000 and the decline of the number of newly acquired HIV infections, after a decline after 2003 is offset by population growth. The proportion of undiagnosed infections has declined to 15% but the number of undiagnosed infections remains stable. The HIV cascade shows that despite good results for treatment in care, reaching the 90*90*90 UNAIDS target may be difficult because a significant proportion of patients are lost to follow-up. Public Library of Science 2018-05-24 /pmc/articles/PMC5967714/ /pubmed/29795698 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0197990 Text en © 2018 Nacher et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Nacher, Mathieu Adriouch, Leila Huber, Florence Vantilcke, Vincent Djossou, Félix Elenga, Narcisse Adenis, Antoine Couppié, Pierre Modeling of the HIV epidemic and continuum of care in French Guiana |
title | Modeling of the HIV epidemic and continuum of care in French Guiana |
title_full | Modeling of the HIV epidemic and continuum of care in French Guiana |
title_fullStr | Modeling of the HIV epidemic and continuum of care in French Guiana |
title_full_unstemmed | Modeling of the HIV epidemic and continuum of care in French Guiana |
title_short | Modeling of the HIV epidemic and continuum of care in French Guiana |
title_sort | modeling of the hiv epidemic and continuum of care in french guiana |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5967714/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29795698 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0197990 |
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