A group decision making tool for assessing climate policy risks against multiple criteria

Climate policy making is challenging primarily in that it involves the assessment of data and methods across a multitude of scientific fields and disciplines. In this respect, integrated assessment models are being used, the level of detail in which allows for modelling all relations between climate and human activity. As a result, their structure is usually significantly complex and their use often excludes stakeholders and their valuable knowledge. The aim of this paper is to assess how multiple criteria decision analysis can bridge the gap between climate policy studies and experts, by delving into the literature and reaching a methodological framework appropriate for solving complex problems of this particular problem domain, featuring multiple alternatives, criteria and decision makers. Based on the findings, the Multiple Alternatives—Criteria—Experts Decision Support System is developed and presented. Finally, the capacity of this spreadsheet-based tool is demonstrated by means of a two-stage case study, which includes assessing the importance of a number of exogenous policy risks, as well as evaluating different short-term policy instruments against these risks.