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How Confident Can We Be in Modelling Female Swimming Performance in Adolescence?

The purpose of this research was to determine the expected progression of adolescent female swimming performances using a longitudinal approach. The performances of 514 female swimmers (12–19 year olds) who participated in one or more FINA-regulated annual international schools’ swimming championshi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Dormehl, Shilo J., Robertson, Samuel J., Williams, Craig A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5968929/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29910264
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sports4010016
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author Dormehl, Shilo J.
Robertson, Samuel J.
Williams, Craig A.
author_facet Dormehl, Shilo J.
Robertson, Samuel J.
Williams, Craig A.
author_sort Dormehl, Shilo J.
collection PubMed
description The purpose of this research was to determine the expected progression of adolescent female swimming performances using a longitudinal approach. The performances of 514 female swimmers (12–19 year olds) who participated in one or more FINA-regulated annual international schools’ swimming championships over an eight-year period were analysed. Quadratic functions for each of the seven individual events (50, 100, 200 m freestyle, 100 m backstroke, breaststroke, butterfly, 200 m individual medley) were determined using mixed linear models. The predicted threshold of peak performance ranged from 16.8 ± 0.2 (200 m individual medley) to 20.6 ± 0.1 (100 m butterfly) years of age, preceded by gradual rates of improvement (mean rate of 1.6% per year). However, following cross validation, only three events (100 m backstroke, 200 m individual medley and 200 m freestyle) produced reliable models. Identifying the factors that contribute to the progression of female performance in this transitory period of life remains challenging, not least since the onset of puberty is likely to have occurred prior to reaching 12 years of age, the minimum competition age for this championship.
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spelling pubmed-59689292018-06-13 How Confident Can We Be in Modelling Female Swimming Performance in Adolescence? Dormehl, Shilo J. Robertson, Samuel J. Williams, Craig A. Sports (Basel) Article The purpose of this research was to determine the expected progression of adolescent female swimming performances using a longitudinal approach. The performances of 514 female swimmers (12–19 year olds) who participated in one or more FINA-regulated annual international schools’ swimming championships over an eight-year period were analysed. Quadratic functions for each of the seven individual events (50, 100, 200 m freestyle, 100 m backstroke, breaststroke, butterfly, 200 m individual medley) were determined using mixed linear models. The predicted threshold of peak performance ranged from 16.8 ± 0.2 (200 m individual medley) to 20.6 ± 0.1 (100 m butterfly) years of age, preceded by gradual rates of improvement (mean rate of 1.6% per year). However, following cross validation, only three events (100 m backstroke, 200 m individual medley and 200 m freestyle) produced reliable models. Identifying the factors that contribute to the progression of female performance in this transitory period of life remains challenging, not least since the onset of puberty is likely to have occurred prior to reaching 12 years of age, the minimum competition age for this championship. MDPI 2016-03-03 /pmc/articles/PMC5968929/ /pubmed/29910264 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sports4010016 Text en © 2016 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons by Attribution (CC-BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Dormehl, Shilo J.
Robertson, Samuel J.
Williams, Craig A.
How Confident Can We Be in Modelling Female Swimming Performance in Adolescence?
title How Confident Can We Be in Modelling Female Swimming Performance in Adolescence?
title_full How Confident Can We Be in Modelling Female Swimming Performance in Adolescence?
title_fullStr How Confident Can We Be in Modelling Female Swimming Performance in Adolescence?
title_full_unstemmed How Confident Can We Be in Modelling Female Swimming Performance in Adolescence?
title_short How Confident Can We Be in Modelling Female Swimming Performance in Adolescence?
title_sort how confident can we be in modelling female swimming performance in adolescence?
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5968929/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29910264
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sports4010016
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