Predicting the potential distributions of the invasive cycad scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) under different climate change scenarios and the implications for management

Cycads are an ancient group of gymnosperms that are popular as landscaping plants, though nearly all of them are threatened or endangered in the wild. The cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS), Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), has become one of the most serious pests of cycads in recent years; however, the potential distribution range and the management approach for this pest are unclear. A potential risk map of cycad aulacaspis scale was created based on occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors in this study. Furthermore, the future potential distributions of CAS were projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-AO and MIROC5) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The model suggested high environmental suitability for the continents of Asia and North America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential distribution expansions or reductions were also predicted under different climate change conditions. Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor, explaining 48.1% of the distribution of the species. The results also suggested that highly suitable habitat for CAS would exist in the study area if the mean temperature of 15–20 °C in the driest quarter and a mean temperature of 25–28 °C the wettest quarter. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policy to manage and control this invasive pest.