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Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years
Adverse consequences of floods change in time and are influenced by both natural and socio-economic trends and interactions. In Europe, previous studies of historical flood losses corrected for demographic and economic growth (‘normalized’) have been limited in temporal and spatial extent, leading t...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5974183/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29844471 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04253-1 |
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author | Paprotny, Dominik Sebastian, Antonia Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. |
author_facet | Paprotny, Dominik Sebastian, Antonia Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. |
author_sort | Paprotny, Dominik |
collection | PubMed |
description | Adverse consequences of floods change in time and are influenced by both natural and socio-economic trends and interactions. In Europe, previous studies of historical flood losses corrected for demographic and economic growth (‘normalized’) have been limited in temporal and spatial extent, leading to an incomplete representation of trends in losses over time. Here we utilize a gridded reconstruction of flood exposure in 37 European countries and a new database of damaging floods since 1870. Our results indicate that, after correcting for changes in flood exposure, there has been an increase in annually inundated area and number of persons affected since 1870, contrasted by a substantial decrease in flood fatalities. For more recent decades we also found a considerable decline in financial losses per year. We estimate, however, that there is large underreporting of smaller floods beyond most recent years, and show that underreporting has a substantial impact on observed trends. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5974183 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-59741832018-05-31 Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years Paprotny, Dominik Sebastian, Antonia Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. Nat Commun Article Adverse consequences of floods change in time and are influenced by both natural and socio-economic trends and interactions. In Europe, previous studies of historical flood losses corrected for demographic and economic growth (‘normalized’) have been limited in temporal and spatial extent, leading to an incomplete representation of trends in losses over time. Here we utilize a gridded reconstruction of flood exposure in 37 European countries and a new database of damaging floods since 1870. Our results indicate that, after correcting for changes in flood exposure, there has been an increase in annually inundated area and number of persons affected since 1870, contrasted by a substantial decrease in flood fatalities. For more recent decades we also found a considerable decline in financial losses per year. We estimate, however, that there is large underreporting of smaller floods beyond most recent years, and show that underreporting has a substantial impact on observed trends. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-05-29 /pmc/articles/PMC5974183/ /pubmed/29844471 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04253-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Paprotny, Dominik Sebastian, Antonia Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years |
title | Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years |
title_full | Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years |
title_fullStr | Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years |
title_full_unstemmed | Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years |
title_short | Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years |
title_sort | trends in flood losses in europe over the past 150 years |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5974183/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29844471 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04253-1 |
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