Predictors and estimation of risk for early exit from working life by poor health among middle and older aged workers in Korea

The aims of this study were to investigate the predictors and estimate the risk for early exit from work owing to poor personal health status of the retirees. This study analysed the longitudinal data of 2,708 workers aged more than 45 years old from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify the predictors and to build a prediction model for early exit from work due to poor health. Internal validation was performed using random split, and external validation using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Over the 8-year follow-up, 124 workers exited work early because of poor health. Significant predictors for early exit from work due to poor health included hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 1.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–2.28), abnormal body mass index (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.10–2.35), decreased grasping power index, and perceived health status. The prediction model designed to estimate the risk of unwanted early exit from work because of poor health status showed fair performance in both the internal and external validations. The current study revealed the specific determinants and the possibility of prediction of shortened working life due to poor health status.