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Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change

Identifying the factors predicting the high‐elevation suitable habitats of Central Asian argali wild sheep and how these suitable habitats are affected by the changing climate regimes could help address conservation and management efforts and identify future critical habitat for the species in easte...

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Autores principales: Salas, Eric Ariel L., Valdez, Raul, Michel, Stefan, Boykin, Kenneth G.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5980363/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29876087
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4103
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author Salas, Eric Ariel L.
Valdez, Raul
Michel, Stefan
Boykin, Kenneth G.
author_facet Salas, Eric Ariel L.
Valdez, Raul
Michel, Stefan
Boykin, Kenneth G.
author_sort Salas, Eric Ariel L.
collection PubMed
description Identifying the factors predicting the high‐elevation suitable habitats of Central Asian argali wild sheep and how these suitable habitats are affected by the changing climate regimes could help address conservation and management efforts and identify future critical habitat for the species in eastern Tajikistan. This study used environmental niche models (ENMs) to map and compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for Marco Polo argali. Argali occurrence points were collected during field surveys conducted from 2009 to 2016. Our models showed that terrain ruggedness and annual mean temperature had strong correlations on argali distribution. We then used two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two future time periods (2050 and 2070) to model the impacts of climate change on Marco Polo argali habitat. Results indicated a decline of suitable habitat with majority of losses observed at lower elevations (3,300–4,300 m). Models that considered all variables (climatic and nonclimatic) predicted losses of present suitable areas of 60.6% (6,928 km(2)) and 63.2% (7,219 km(2)) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Results also showed averaged habitat gains of 46.2% (6,106 km(2)) at much higher elevations (4,500–6,900 m) and that elevational shifts of habitat use could occur in the future. Our results could provide information for conservation planning for this near threatened species in the region.
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spelling pubmed-59803632018-06-06 Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change Salas, Eric Ariel L. Valdez, Raul Michel, Stefan Boykin, Kenneth G. Ecol Evol Original Research Identifying the factors predicting the high‐elevation suitable habitats of Central Asian argali wild sheep and how these suitable habitats are affected by the changing climate regimes could help address conservation and management efforts and identify future critical habitat for the species in eastern Tajikistan. This study used environmental niche models (ENMs) to map and compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for Marco Polo argali. Argali occurrence points were collected during field surveys conducted from 2009 to 2016. Our models showed that terrain ruggedness and annual mean temperature had strong correlations on argali distribution. We then used two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two future time periods (2050 and 2070) to model the impacts of climate change on Marco Polo argali habitat. Results indicated a decline of suitable habitat with majority of losses observed at lower elevations (3,300–4,300 m). Models that considered all variables (climatic and nonclimatic) predicted losses of present suitable areas of 60.6% (6,928 km(2)) and 63.2% (7,219 km(2)) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Results also showed averaged habitat gains of 46.2% (6,106 km(2)) at much higher elevations (4,500–6,900 m) and that elevational shifts of habitat use could occur in the future. Our results could provide information for conservation planning for this near threatened species in the region. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2018-04-24 /pmc/articles/PMC5980363/ /pubmed/29876087 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4103 Text en © 2018 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Research
Salas, Eric Ariel L.
Valdez, Raul
Michel, Stefan
Boykin, Kenneth G.
Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change
title Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change
title_full Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change
title_fullStr Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change
title_full_unstemmed Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change
title_short Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change
title_sort habitat assessment of marco polo sheep (ovis ammon polii) in eastern tajikistan: modeling the effects of climate change
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5980363/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29876087
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4103
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