Cargando…

Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy

Recent mathematical and statistical modeling of leprosy incidence data provides estimates of the current undiagnosed population and projections of diagnosed cases, as well as ongoing transmission. Furthermore, modeling studies have been used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed intervention str...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Medley, Graham F, Blok, David J, Crump, Ronald E, Hollingsworth, T Déirdre, Galvani, Alison P, Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L, Porco, Travis C, Richardus, Jan Hendrik
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5982730/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29860289
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciy005
_version_ 1783328298579787776
author Medley, Graham F
Blok, David J
Crump, Ronald E
Hollingsworth, T Déirdre
Galvani, Alison P
Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L
Porco, Travis C
Richardus, Jan Hendrik
author_facet Medley, Graham F
Blok, David J
Crump, Ronald E
Hollingsworth, T Déirdre
Galvani, Alison P
Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L
Porco, Travis C
Richardus, Jan Hendrik
author_sort Medley, Graham F
collection PubMed
description Recent mathematical and statistical modeling of leprosy incidence data provides estimates of the current undiagnosed population and projections of diagnosed cases, as well as ongoing transmission. Furthermore, modeling studies have been used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed intervention strategies, such as postleprosy exposure prophylaxis and novel diagnostics, relative to current approaches. Such modeling studies have revealed both a slow decline of new cases and a substantial pool of undiagnosed infections. These findings highlight the need for active case detection, particularly targeting leprosy foci, as well as for continued research into innovative accurate, rapid, and cost-effective diagnostics. As leprosy incidence continues to decline, targeted active case detection primarily in foci and connected areas will likely become increasingly important.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-5982730
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2018
publisher Oxford University Press
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-59827302018-06-06 Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy Medley, Graham F Blok, David J Crump, Ronald E Hollingsworth, T Déirdre Galvani, Alison P Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L Porco, Travis C Richardus, Jan Hendrik Clin Infect Dis Supplement Articles Recent mathematical and statistical modeling of leprosy incidence data provides estimates of the current undiagnosed population and projections of diagnosed cases, as well as ongoing transmission. Furthermore, modeling studies have been used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed intervention strategies, such as postleprosy exposure prophylaxis and novel diagnostics, relative to current approaches. Such modeling studies have revealed both a slow decline of new cases and a substantial pool of undiagnosed infections. These findings highlight the need for active case detection, particularly targeting leprosy foci, as well as for continued research into innovative accurate, rapid, and cost-effective diagnostics. As leprosy incidence continues to decline, targeted active case detection primarily in foci and connected areas will likely become increasingly important. Oxford University Press 2018-06-15 2018-06-01 /pmc/articles/PMC5982730/ /pubmed/29860289 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciy005 Text en © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Supplement Articles
Medley, Graham F
Blok, David J
Crump, Ronald E
Hollingsworth, T Déirdre
Galvani, Alison P
Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L
Porco, Travis C
Richardus, Jan Hendrik
Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy
title Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy
title_full Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy
title_fullStr Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy
title_full_unstemmed Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy
title_short Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy
title_sort policy lessons from quantitative modeling of leprosy
topic Supplement Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5982730/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29860289
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciy005
work_keys_str_mv AT medleygrahamf policylessonsfromquantitativemodelingofleprosy
AT blokdavidj policylessonsfromquantitativemodelingofleprosy
AT crumpronalde policylessonsfromquantitativemodelingofleprosy
AT hollingsworthtdeirdre policylessonsfromquantitativemodelingofleprosy
AT galvanialisonp policylessonsfromquantitativemodelingofleprosy
AT ndeffombahmartiall policylessonsfromquantitativemodelingofleprosy
AT porcotravisc policylessonsfromquantitativemodelingofleprosy
AT richardusjanhendrik policylessonsfromquantitativemodelingofleprosy