Mathematical Model for Forecasting the Influence of Atmospheric Pollution on Population Morbidity in Stara Zagora Municipality (Bulgaria)

AIM: This paper aims to create a mathematical model for forecasting the morbidity of the population in the Republic of Bulgaria and the Stara Zagora Municipality in particular as a consequence of the atmospheric pollution. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: This model is based on a formula which determines the correlation between the average annual concentrations of atmospheric pollutants SO(2), PM(10), Pb aerosols, NO(2) and H(2)S) and the morbidity of the population based on the number of people who visited their GPs in a relation with a chronic health problem or emergency condition and the number of hospitalisations in two age groups (newborn to 17 years olds and 18 and older) as well as for the entire population in the period 2009-2013, making it possible to predict morbidity levels. RESULTS: The expected morbidity level predictions based on the number of people who visited their GPs in Municipality are lower, while hospitalisation level predictions are higher. This model has been created and tested and is applicable in all residential areas. CONCLUSIONS: A new, very sensitive, mathematical model has been created and tested (average margin of error from 0.61% to 2.59%) and is applicable in all residential areas.