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Role of subsurface ocean in decadal climate predictability over the South Atlantic
Decadal climate predictability in the South Atlantic is explored by performing reforecast experiments using a coupled general circulation model with two initialization schemes; one is assimilated with observed sea surface temperature (SST) only, and the other is additionally assimilated with observe...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5986776/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29867150 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-26899-z |
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author | Morioka, Yushi Doi, Takeshi Storto, Andrea Masina, Simona Behera, Swadhin K. |
author_facet | Morioka, Yushi Doi, Takeshi Storto, Andrea Masina, Simona Behera, Swadhin K. |
author_sort | Morioka, Yushi |
collection | PubMed |
description | Decadal climate predictability in the South Atlantic is explored by performing reforecast experiments using a coupled general circulation model with two initialization schemes; one is assimilated with observed sea surface temperature (SST) only, and the other is additionally assimilated with observed subsurface ocean temperature and salinity. The South Atlantic is known to undergo decadal variability exhibiting a meridional dipole of SST anomalies through variations in the subtropical high and ocean heat transport. Decadal reforecast experiments in which only the model SST is initialized with the observation do not predict well the observed decadal SST variability in the South Atlantic, while the other experiments in which the model SST and subsurface ocean are initialized with the observation skillfully predict the observed decadal SST variability, particularly in the Southeast Atlantic. In-depth analysis of upper-ocean heat content reveals that a significant improvement of zonal heat transport in the Southeast Atlantic leads to skillful prediction of decadal SST variability there. These results demonstrate potential roles of subsurface ocean assimilation in the skillful prediction of decadal climate variability over the South Atlantic. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5986776 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-59867762018-06-07 Role of subsurface ocean in decadal climate predictability over the South Atlantic Morioka, Yushi Doi, Takeshi Storto, Andrea Masina, Simona Behera, Swadhin K. Sci Rep Article Decadal climate predictability in the South Atlantic is explored by performing reforecast experiments using a coupled general circulation model with two initialization schemes; one is assimilated with observed sea surface temperature (SST) only, and the other is additionally assimilated with observed subsurface ocean temperature and salinity. The South Atlantic is known to undergo decadal variability exhibiting a meridional dipole of SST anomalies through variations in the subtropical high and ocean heat transport. Decadal reforecast experiments in which only the model SST is initialized with the observation do not predict well the observed decadal SST variability in the South Atlantic, while the other experiments in which the model SST and subsurface ocean are initialized with the observation skillfully predict the observed decadal SST variability, particularly in the Southeast Atlantic. In-depth analysis of upper-ocean heat content reveals that a significant improvement of zonal heat transport in the Southeast Atlantic leads to skillful prediction of decadal SST variability there. These results demonstrate potential roles of subsurface ocean assimilation in the skillful prediction of decadal climate variability over the South Atlantic. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-06-04 /pmc/articles/PMC5986776/ /pubmed/29867150 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-26899-z Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Morioka, Yushi Doi, Takeshi Storto, Andrea Masina, Simona Behera, Swadhin K. Role of subsurface ocean in decadal climate predictability over the South Atlantic |
title | Role of subsurface ocean in decadal climate predictability over the South Atlantic |
title_full | Role of subsurface ocean in decadal climate predictability over the South Atlantic |
title_fullStr | Role of subsurface ocean in decadal climate predictability over the South Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed | Role of subsurface ocean in decadal climate predictability over the South Atlantic |
title_short | Role of subsurface ocean in decadal climate predictability over the South Atlantic |
title_sort | role of subsurface ocean in decadal climate predictability over the south atlantic |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5986776/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29867150 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-26899-z |
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