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Human influence on sub-regional surface air temperature change over India

Human activities have been implicated in the observed increase in Global Mean Surface Temperature. Over regional scales where climatic changes determine societal impacts and drive adaptation related decisions, detection and attribution (D&A) of climate change can be challenging due to the greate...

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Autores principales: Dileepkumar, R., AchutaRao, Krishna, Arulalan, T.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5997713/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29895941
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-27185-8
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author Dileepkumar, R.
AchutaRao, Krishna
Arulalan, T.
author_facet Dileepkumar, R.
AchutaRao, Krishna
Arulalan, T.
author_sort Dileepkumar, R.
collection PubMed
description Human activities have been implicated in the observed increase in Global Mean Surface Temperature. Over regional scales where climatic changes determine societal impacts and drive adaptation related decisions, detection and attribution (D&A) of climate change can be challenging due to the greater contribution of internal variability, greater uncertainty in regionally important forcings, greater errors in climate models, and larger observational uncertainty in many regions of the world. We examine the causes of annual and seasonal surface air temperature (TAS) changes over sub-regions (based on a demarcation of homogeneous temperature zones) of India using two observational datasets together with results from a multimodel archive of forced and unforced simulations. Our D&A analysis examines sensitivity of the results to a variety of optimal fingerprint methods and temporal-averaging choices. We can robustly attribute TAS changes over India between 1956–2005 to anthropogenic forcing mostly by greenhouse gases and partially offset by other anthropogenic forcings including aerosols and land use land cover change.
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spelling pubmed-59977132018-06-21 Human influence on sub-regional surface air temperature change over India Dileepkumar, R. AchutaRao, Krishna Arulalan, T. Sci Rep Article Human activities have been implicated in the observed increase in Global Mean Surface Temperature. Over regional scales where climatic changes determine societal impacts and drive adaptation related decisions, detection and attribution (D&A) of climate change can be challenging due to the greater contribution of internal variability, greater uncertainty in regionally important forcings, greater errors in climate models, and larger observational uncertainty in many regions of the world. We examine the causes of annual and seasonal surface air temperature (TAS) changes over sub-regions (based on a demarcation of homogeneous temperature zones) of India using two observational datasets together with results from a multimodel archive of forced and unforced simulations. Our D&A analysis examines sensitivity of the results to a variety of optimal fingerprint methods and temporal-averaging choices. We can robustly attribute TAS changes over India between 1956–2005 to anthropogenic forcing mostly by greenhouse gases and partially offset by other anthropogenic forcings including aerosols and land use land cover change. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-06-12 /pmc/articles/PMC5997713/ /pubmed/29895941 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-27185-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Dileepkumar, R.
AchutaRao, Krishna
Arulalan, T.
Human influence on sub-regional surface air temperature change over India
title Human influence on sub-regional surface air temperature change over India
title_full Human influence on sub-regional surface air temperature change over India
title_fullStr Human influence on sub-regional surface air temperature change over India
title_full_unstemmed Human influence on sub-regional surface air temperature change over India
title_short Human influence on sub-regional surface air temperature change over India
title_sort human influence on sub-regional surface air temperature change over india
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5997713/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29895941
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-27185-8
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