Grassland ecosystem responses to climate change and human activities within the Three-River Headwaters region of China

The Three-River Headwaters region (TRHR) of China is an important part of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Although the TRHR is rich in grassland resources, the ecosystem of this area is extremely fragile. Natural and artificial interference have been key to the development of grassland ecosystem spatiotemporal heterogeneity, although the intensity and mode of their influence on ecological processes varies depending on scale; analyses in this area are therefore also scale-dependent. We use multi-scale nested data to analyze the mechanisms underlying the influence of climate change and human activities on grassland net primary productivity (NPP) by applying a multi-level modeling approach. The results of this study show that: (1) The annual grassland NPP of the TRHR has risen in a wavelike pattern over time, increasing by 39.88% overall; (2) Differences of 54.9% and 41.1% in temporal grassland NPP can be attributed to variations between these watersheds as well as county characteristics, and; (3) Although the ‘warm and moist’ climate trend seen over the course of this study has proved beneficial in enhancing grassland NPP, the rate of increase has tended to be faster in relatively dry and warm regions. Economic development and population growth have both exerted negative impacts on grassland NPP.