中国省区水平肺癌死亡率估计方法研究

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: At present, population-based cancer registries were not well established and epidemiologic data for cancer were limited at the province level in China. Using the available mortality data for cancer, estimation model of lung cancer was established to provide the mortality profile for the population in 31 provincial regions in China in 2008. METHODS: Based on the population coverage and accuracy of the available mortality for provinces, the methods used to produce mortality estimates fall into 1 of the 3 categories: data were used directly; a model was developed to calculate annual change of mortality rate based on historical and current data; relative frequency data combining with mortality for all sites were used to estimate site-specific mortality. RESULTS: The total estimated deaths of lung cancer in 2008 were 493, 348 (338, 346 in males and 155, 002 in females) in the whole country. The age-standardized rates were highest in Jilin (52.29 per 100, 000 in males and 24.68 per 100, 000 in females), and the lowest rates were in Tianjin (24.12 per 100, 000 in males) and Chongqing (8.72 per 100, 000 in females). CONCLUSION: The models for lung cancer mortality at the province level have been established and the data will provide valuable scientific reference for describing the epidemic of lung cancer as well as estimating other site-specific cancer mortality in China.