中国肺癌发病死亡的估计和流行趋势研究

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to analyze lung cancer epidemiological trend and estimate lung cancer burden in China. METHODS: Lung cancer age specifc mortality and incidence rate ratios in di?erent areas and sexes were obtained from national cancer registration database in 2004 and 2005. Cancer crude mortalities were retrieved from the database of the third national death survey, 2004-2005. Age specifc incidence rates of lung cancer were calculated using mortality and M/I ratios. Annual percent change (APC) was estimated by log regression model using Joint Point sofware by analyzing pooled lung cancer incidence data from 10 cancer registries from 1988 to 2005. RESULTS: The total estimated new cases and deaths of lung cancer in 2005 were 536 407 and 475 768 which were higher in male than in female. Tere was 1.63% increase of lung cancer incidence per year from 1988 to 2005, however, the trend showed a slowdown by 0.55% annually afer adjusted by age. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer is one of major health issues in China and the burden is geting serious. Ageing population is main cause for increasing incidence and mortality of lung cancer. Effective cancer prevention and control is imperative. Especially, tobacco control should be carried out in statewide.