Bayesian Analysis of the Glacial‐Interglacial Methane Increase Constrained by Stable Isotopes and Earth System Modeling

The observed rise in atmospheric methane (CH(4)) from 375 ppbv during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21,000 years ago) to 680 ppbv during the late preindustrial era is not well understood. Atmospheric chemistry considerations implicate an increase in CH(4) sources, but process‐based estimates fail to reproduce the required amplitude. CH(4) stable isotopes provide complementary information that can help constrain the underlying causes of the increase. We combine Earth System model simulations of the late preindustrial and LGM CH(4) cycles, including process‐based estimates of the isotopic discrimination of vegetation, in a box model of atmospheric CH(4) and its isotopes. Using a Bayesian approach, we show how model‐based constraints and ice core observations may be combined in a consistent probabilistic framework. The resultant posterior distributions point to a strong reduction in wetland and other biogenic CH(4) emissions during the LGM, with a modest increase in the geological source, or potentially natural or anthropogenic fires, accounting for the observed enrichment of δ (13)CH(4).