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Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060
BACKGROUND: In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060. METHODS...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6003101/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29903012 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4 |
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author | Lin, Ji Thompson, Theodore J. Cheng, Yiling J. Zhuo, Xiaohui Zhang, Ping Gregg, Edward Rolka, Deborah B. |
author_facet | Lin, Ji Thompson, Theodore J. Cheng, Yiling J. Zhuo, Xiaohui Zhang, Ping Gregg, Edward Rolka, Deborah B. |
author_sort | Lin, Ji |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060. METHODS: A dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985–2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000–2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection. RESULTS: The projected number and percent of adults with diagnosed diabetes would increase from 22.3 million (9.1%) in 2014 to 39.7 million (13.9%) in 2030, and to 60.6 million (17.9%) in 2060. The number of people with diabetes aged 65 years or older would increase from 9.2 million in 2014 to 21.0 million in 2030, and to 35.2 million in 2060. The percent prevalence would increase in all race-sex groups, with black women and men continuing to have the highest diabetes percent prevalence, and black women and women of other race having the largest relative increases. CONCLUSIONS: By 2060, the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes is projected to nearly triple, and the percent prevalence double. Our estimates are essential to predict health services needs and plan public health programs aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6003101 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-60031012018-07-06 Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060 Lin, Ji Thompson, Theodore J. Cheng, Yiling J. Zhuo, Xiaohui Zhang, Ping Gregg, Edward Rolka, Deborah B. Popul Health Metr Research BACKGROUND: In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060. METHODS: A dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985–2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000–2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection. RESULTS: The projected number and percent of adults with diagnosed diabetes would increase from 22.3 million (9.1%) in 2014 to 39.7 million (13.9%) in 2030, and to 60.6 million (17.9%) in 2060. The number of people with diabetes aged 65 years or older would increase from 9.2 million in 2014 to 21.0 million in 2030, and to 35.2 million in 2060. The percent prevalence would increase in all race-sex groups, with black women and men continuing to have the highest diabetes percent prevalence, and black women and women of other race having the largest relative increases. CONCLUSIONS: By 2060, the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes is projected to nearly triple, and the percent prevalence double. Our estimates are essential to predict health services needs and plan public health programs aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. BioMed Central 2018-06-15 /pmc/articles/PMC6003101/ /pubmed/29903012 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4 Text en © The Author(s). 2018 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. |
spellingShingle | Research Lin, Ji Thompson, Theodore J. Cheng, Yiling J. Zhuo, Xiaohui Zhang, Ping Gregg, Edward Rolka, Deborah B. Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060 |
title | Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060 |
title_full | Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060 |
title_fullStr | Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060 |
title_full_unstemmed | Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060 |
title_short | Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060 |
title_sort | projection of the future diabetes burden in the united states through 2060 |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6003101/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29903012 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4 |
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